Why a small stake fails

A commitment contract only works if the missed day hurts in the ordinary sense of the word. Not as a moral lesson. As a number you would rather not lose. If the amount is small relative to your week, you can buy the miss and feel clever. The contract then becomes a receipt for skipping.

That is why a single minimum for everyone is a weak design. Five dollars is a real annoyance for some people and a rounding error for others. Miss and Pay asks for an income band and refuses a daily stake under the floor for that band. Under $60,000 a year, the floor is $5 and the suggestion is $10. From $60,000 to $120,000, the floor is $15 and the suggestion is $25. From $120,000 to $250,000, the floor is $40 and the suggestion is $75. Over $250,000, the floor is $50 and the suggestion is $100. You can go higher, up to $200 a day. You cannot go under the floor.

The sentence on the slip is the whole theory: if you would not notice it missing, it will not change the day. Notice does not mean panic. It means you would think about it while deciding whether to open the link. Beeminder uses a rising schedule, $5 then $10 then $30 and up, so the number finds you after a few misses. Miss and Pay does not raise the stake mid contract. You pick a number that already matters, and you pay it up front, so the pain is not theoretical.

Kahneman and Tversky described a related pattern in Prospect Theory, Econometrica, 1979. In their words, the value function is generally steeper for losses than for gains. The paper is a critique of expected utility, not a recipe, and it does not hand you a percentage to use as a stake. Miss and Pay does not pretend a formula converts your salary into the perfect number. The floors are a practical guard against a stake you can ignore. The suggestion is a starting point. The slider is there so you can raise it until the charged total makes you sit up.

A small stake also fails in a second way. It makes the refund feel like the product. You finish, you get a tiny amount back, and you learn nothing about the days you were willing to sell. A larger stake makes the forfeited day obvious on the ledger. That is the feedback. Not a badge. A line of coral next to a date.

If you are unsure, use the suggestion for your band and a short contract, 7 days. You will know by day 3 whether the number is real. Raising it on the next contract is allowed. Dropping under the floor is not.